Home Sales in the Florida Keys - Market Report (November 2015 Update)
Buyers Showing Signs of Price Resistance
Compared to the same period last year, the first 11 months of 2015 support that the real estate sales market is continuing to strengthen in the Upper Florida Keys. The number of residential sales in up 3% while the average sales price has increased from $514,829 to $554,326, or 7%. The overall sales volume has increased 11%. However, the last 3 months tell a bit of a different story.
For the period of September through November 2015, the number of sales has decreased a dramatic 26%, from the same period last year, while the average sales price has been virtually flat at $514,031. We believe this is a sign that the rapid sales price increases over the prior 3 years is starting to get some resistance from Buyers.
The number of foreclosures and short sales continue to decline. The number of distressed property closings in the first eleven months of 2015 was 11% of total sales, down from 17% in 2014.
Graphic representations of these market trends can be seen by opening the PDF attachments at the bottom of this page.
So You Want My Opinion about the Florida Keys Real Estate Market?
I am asked my opinion of the market trends by almost every Buyer, "What is happening to the Real Estate Market in the Florida Keys? Is it a good time to buy? Are prices going up?"
Before I answer that question, I qualify my response by explaining that I bought my current Florida Keys home at the peak of the real estate market in 2005, and that it is now worth about 80% of what I paid for it. If they are still interested in my opinion, I continue.
What's in a Real Estate Market Statistic?
Statistics are just statistics and sometimes you can spin them to support what you want. I ran into this while trying to convince myself that what I have been feeling, and more importantly telling my clients, was in fact true. Is the real estate market in the Florida Keys rebounding?
Florida Keys Home Sales Increasing through November
The number of residential home sales in the Upper Keys in the first eleven months of 2015 total 750. In 2014, the number of residential sales total 727. So the number of sales has increased 3%. This can be seen graphically on the PDF at the bottom of this page titled "Number of Sales 2008 through Nov 2015 - (6 Month Rolling Average)"
Home Prices are Increasing in the Florida Keys
If you look at a straight graph of monthly data (Attachment "Upper Florida Keys Monthy Sales Statistics 2008 - through November 2015) it jumps quite a bit and is difficult to determine a trend. Through November 2015, the average residential home sales price was $554,326. In 2014 it was $514,829. So in the Upper Keys we are seeing an increase of less than 1%. By removing the foreclosures and short sales from the calculation, the average home sold thus far in 2015 was $558,084 an increase of 5% for similarly classified 2014 sales.
I use a rolling average approach in order to smooth out the seasonality of the statistics. I use a 6 month rolling average because 12 months, although it eliminates seasonal trends, is too slow to reflect trends within the year. 3 months still has too much seasonality and jumps in the same way a straight month to month graph does. A 6 months rolling average seems to work. The graph is smoother and definitely shows trends within the year.
Of course there are other factors that influence this data. How many foreclosures and short sales are there now compared to last year? The Upper Keys is still a relatively small sample and a few large estate sales, or an increase in mobile home sales can have a significant impact on monthly data. But at some point I have to let it go and hope that I am a better Realtor® than a statistician and believe that it will all "come out in the wash."
Foreclosures and Short Sales are Decreasing Dramatically
Foreclosures and Short Sales are still a part of this market, but the inventory now represents less than 8% of the real estate homes for sale in the Florida Keys. Less than 24 months ago they represented as much as 14% of the inventory and 27% of the closings. For more information, including a list of distressed properties, visit foreclosures and short sales.
Luxury Waterfront Home Sales on the Increase
If you are interested in the luxury home market, visit our Luxury Waterfront Homes page for a list of these properties that we consider a good value. To receive daily email notices of new luxury waterfront homes as they are just listed, complete the registration to the right of this page and indicate by checking the Luxury Waterfront Home box that you would like to receive these notifications.