Home Sales in the Florida Keys - Market Report (Year End 2016 Update)
Upper Keys Home Sales Decrease in 2016 as Average Sales Prices Climb
The number of residential home sales decreased 14% in 2016 while the average sales price increased 13% to $629,611. We believe the decline in actual sales may be a result of reduced inventories and some price resistance from Buyers. Since the Florida Keys real estate market bottomed in 2010, annual increases in home sale prices have averaged about 5%.
Foreclosures and short sales continue to become a smaller part of the over all market and represent less that 4% of the total listing inventory and 6.3% of sales Keys wide.
Graphic representations of these market trends can be seen by opening the PDF attachments at the bottom of this page.
So You Want My Opinion about the Florida Keys Real Estate Market?
I am asked my opinion of the market trends by almost every Buyer, "What is happening to the Real Estate Market in the Florida Keys? Is it a good time to buy? Are prices going up?"
Before I answer that question, I qualify my response by explaining that I bought my current Florida Keys home at the peak of the real estate market in 2005, and that it is now worth about 85% of what I paid for it. If they are still interested in my opinion, I continue.
What's in a Real Estate Market Statistic?
Statistics are just statistics and sometimes you can spin them to support what you want. I ran into this while trying to convince myself that what I have been feeling, and more importantly telling my clients, was in fact true. Is the real estate market in the Florida Keys rebounding?
Home Prices are Increasing in the Florida Keys
If you look at a straight graph of monthly data (Attachment "Upper Florida Keys Monthy Sales Statistics 2008 - through December 2016) it jumps quite a bit and is difficult to determine a trend. Through December 2016, the average residential home sales price was $629,611. In 2015 it was $575,323. So in the Upper Keys 2016 home sales prices were up 13%.
I use a rolling average approach in order to smooth out the seasonality of the statistics. I use a 6 month rolling average because 12 months, although it eliminates seasonal jumps, is too slow to reflect trends within the year. 3 months still has too much seasonality to it and jumps in a way similar to a straight month to month tracking. A 6 months rolling average seems to work. The graph is smoother and definitely shows trends within the year.
Of course there are other factors that influence this data. How many foreclosures and short sales are there now compared to last year? The Upper Keys is still a relatively small sample and a few large estate sales, or an increase in mobile home sales can have a significant impact on monthly data. But at some point I have to let it go and hope that I am a better Realtor® than a statistician and believe that it will all "come out in the wash."
The Number of Foreclosures and Short Sales Continue to Decline
Foreclosures and Short Sales are now a minor part of this market. The inventory represents less than 4% of the real estate homes for sale in the Florida Keys. Less than 4 years ago they represented as much as 14% of the inventory and 27% of the sales. For more information, including a list of distressed properties, visit foreclosures and short sales.
Luxury Waterfront Home Sales on the Increase
If you are interested in the luxury home market, visit our Luxury Waterfront Homes page for a list of these properties that we consider a good value. To receive daily email notices of new luxury waterfront homes as they are just listed, complete the registration to the right of this page and indicate by checking the Luxury Waterfront Home box that you would like to receive these notifications.