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Florida Keys Real Estate Market – February 2023

By Market Reports

Real Estate Market Report: Florida Keys 2023

General Market Conditions

The real estate market tides are shifting in the Florida Keys as they are nationally, although the specifics and timing differ. The sales prices have peaked in the Keys, as they have in the broader national market, but the Keys peak appears to have happened in the summer of 2022, while the national average, according to the National Association of Realtors, began its decrease much earlier in the year.  I’m not sure if this slight delay in timing means much, but the biggest difference between the Keys and national market seems to be the change in inventory levels. While they have been increasing most of the year on a national level, they have remained relatively flat in the Keys, at historically low levels since mid-2021, only in the last quarter of the year have they started to increase.

If you own property here, and want to sell it, you probably missed the peak of the market and won’t get the top dollar for your property you may have six months ago, but inventories remain historically low, and if you price your home properly, chances are you will receive a fair offer in a relatively short time. The key is pricing your property to sell. It is possible you won’t get the price your realtor’s comparable sales are showing you from six months ago, but you won’t have to give your home away either. The pendulum may be starting to shift, but it is still a Seller’s market in the Florida Keys.

If you are looking to buy a property in the Florida Keys, you will still more than likely, be paying a premium price, and your choices remain limited, but changes are you won’t have to actively bid against multiple offers as was the case in 2021 and much of 2022,  nor make inspection concessions to increase your chances of getting your offer accepted. When you find a property that works for you, make a fair offer. It is still a Seller’s market. If you are looking to steal a deal, you may want to remain on the side lines a bit longer.

If you are in the business of helping people buy and sell real estate, like me, you are feeling pretty good about your career choice, for even though the number of sales is settling to pre-COVID levels, prices are still strong and there are plenty of buyers chasing historically low inventories, at least in the Florida Keys.

How long will this Seller’s Market last?  I am watching the sales prices. Traditionally, except during the market crash of 2007, the Keys have been stubborn in retreating from home price increases. Demand is softening, for several reasons, including affordability indexes, but if the number of available homes for sale stays low, I don’t anticipate much of a decline in pricing, although there is bound to be some.

If you are a chart person, you will find at the bottom of this page several PDF files displaying three years of Florida Keys real estate trends including the “number of sales”, “the median sales price,” “the number of days from listing to contract,” and “the number of properties for sale (inventory)”.  I have kept single family homes separate from condominiums and the monthly data points are 6-month rolling averages, used to smooth out seasonal fluctuations and spikes created by outlying sales that can skew things in a relatively small market like the Keys.  Mobil homes and vacant lots have been excluded from the data, but if you have an interest in these, reach out to me on the contact page and I will gladly share that information with you.

 

The Florida Keys Real Estate Market – 2022 Year End Update

Prices Sky Rocket as the Number of Residential Sales Decrease: Cash Purchases Up

According to Monroe County MLS (Multiple Listing Service) data, there was a significant decrease in the number of single-family and townhome/condo sales (-33.2%) in the Florida Keys in 2022. However, the prices paid for these properties continued to increase (+22.9%) reaching a median sales price of $933,350. Single family homes sold at a median price of over a million dollars ($1,027,500) while the average sales price sky rocketed to $1,460,845. Cash buyers accounted for 43.2% of  single-family and townhome purchases, up from 38.2% in the prior year.

The ratio of sold price to list price is a key market statistic most real estate professionals watch closely, it being an indication of how strong the Buyer demand as shown by their offer price, compared to how much the Seller is hoping to receive as shown by their asking price. In 2021, the peak of the COVID driven Seller’s market, the median sold to list ratio was 97.5%, with many homes being purchased above their list price, often with several Buyers bidding for the same property and making concessions to the Sellers such as waving inspections. In 2022 this ratio mellowed a bit for single family homes to a  year average of 96.3%. However, in the month of December this ratio dipped to 92.6%, close to the historical norm of just above 90%, indicating to most who watch these things that Buyers are pushing back some against the aggressive asking prices being set by Sellers. Interesting to note however, in the lower priced townhome/condo market, this ratio in 2022 was 98.2%, higher than the 97.5% in 2021, with even year-end December’s ratio coming in at a healthy (for Sellers) 95.5%.

Inventories are Increasing but Remain Historically Low

On the last day of 2022 there were 622 single-family homes and 134 townhomes/condos listed for sale in the three Florida Keys MLS services. This is an increase of 290 (62.2%) over the same day a year earlier.  That is a pretty dramatic increase, and one might draw the conclusion that prices should be tumbling, prompting the question, “why aren’t they?” It’s because the 756 homes for sale on December 31, 2022, are still about 50% of the Florida Keys inventory in 2019, when at year end there were 1,508 homes for sale, the modern era norm.

Looking a little deeper into the numbers, we notice that the number of new single-family  listings in the Florida Keys market has been fairly consistent the last seven years, ranging from a low of 1,856 in 2017 to a high of 2,283 in 2021, only a delta of 19%, or 12% if we ignore the 2017 outlier.  The decrease in inventory is not due to people not wanting to sell their homes, but a decrease in time that the home is taking to sell. A statistic that makes Sellers and Realtors smile, the median time it takes between the listing date and the date the Seller accepts an offer, has been approximately 30 days for the last two years, while historically, more specifically between 2016 and 2020, it has averaged 94 days for single-family and 98 days for townhomes.

(Information for this report comes from Florida Realtors® with data provided by Florida’s multiple listing services compiled monthly from MLS feeds.)

Florida Keys Real Estate Market – July 2022

By Market Reports

Real Estate Market Report; Florida Keys 2022

General Market Conditions

How the real estate market in the Florida Keys is viewed of course depends on who is viewing it. If you own property here, and want to sell it, you should be feeling pretty good about your prospects of getting a great price in a relative short amount of time, especially if you have an upscale property worth over a million dollars. If you have a property on the market and are not receiving offers near or above your asking price, you and your realtor may want to reconsider the asking price, perhaps having set your sights too high, even in this market.

If you are looking to buy a property in the Florida Keys, expect to pay historically high prices for it, and when you do find one that works for you, don’t take a lot of time making up your mind.

If you are in the business of helping people buy and sell real estate, you are probably feeling pretty good about your career choice, for even though the number of sales appear to be settling to pre-COVID levels, increasing residential real estate closing prices are creating skyrocketing dollar sales volume.

How long will this Seller’s Market last? On a national level the market appears to be softening. According to Zillow’s July 2022 report, home value growth will grow 7.8% over the next 12 months, a significant slowdown from the current pace of 19.8%. The number of homes sold by the end of 2022 is projected will decrease 10.8% from 2021. Realtor.com’s June report says inventories of homes for sale increased 18.7% over last year with the median asking price up 16.9% and predicts inventories will continue to increase amidst moderating demand.

But all real estate markets are local by nature, and I don’t think these nationals conditions and trend predictions necessarily apply to the Florida Keys.

If you are a chart person, you will find at the bottom of this page several PDF files displaying nearly three years of Florida Keys real estate trends including the “number of sales”, “the median sales price,” “the number of days from listing to contract,” and “the number of properties for sale (inventory)”. I have kept single family homes separate from condominiums and the monthly data points are 6-month rolling averages, used to smooth out seasonal fluctuations and spikes created by outlying sales that can skew things in a relatively small market like the Keys. Mobil homes and vacant lots have been excluded from the data, but if you have an interest in these, reach out to me on the contact page and I will gladly share that information with you.

The Florida Keys Real Estate Market – April 2022 Update

Number of Residential Sales Decrease and Stabilize

The number of 2nd quarter residential single family and condominium sales in the Florida Keys have decreased about 35% from last year and appear to be stabilizing close to mid-2020 levels. Cash buyers account for approximately 42.2% of single-family home purchases and 47.2% of condo purchases thus far in 2022, up 14.7% and 4.2% respectively over the same period in 2021.

Sale Price Increases Continue to Climb

The median sale price of residential Florida Keys properties does not appear to be slowing down.  The median (six-month trailing rolling average) price for a single-family home as of June 2022, was $1,070,471 a 30% increase from June 2021.  The median condominium price was $668,792 a 37.8% increase from June 2021.  If you owned a residential property in the Florida Keys at the beginning of the COVID pandemic in 2019, based on sold property data, you have probably realized a 50% to 75% increase in your property’s value.

Another strength of market indicator is the ratio of sold price to list price.  With single-family homes the average 2022 ratio is 98.0% compared to 93.6% in 2020, with condos at 99.5% compared to 93.6%.  Many sellers are still receiving multiple offers, often with buyer concessions, often resulting in their home selling for above its listing price.

Inventories nearly 40% of 2019 Early COVID Levels

Single-family homes offered for sale in the Florida Keys Multiple Listing Services (MLS) at the end of June 2022 totaled 470, 42% of the 1,118 listed at the end of June 2019. As for condominiums, only 100 were for sale, 26.7% of the 375 listed at the end of June 2019.

The shortage of inventory, upon closer examination, is not due to a lack of Sellers. The number of new listings for both single family homes and condos in the Florida Keys has only varied slightly over the last 6 years. However, the median time to contract, or the amount of time between a listing being on the market as “active” and the time a seller accepts an offer, is a third of what it was in early 2019. The supply has been constant, while the demand has significantly increased, the average single-family home going to contract in just 25 days in 2022, compared to 114 days just two years earlier, the average condo in just 55 days, compared to 135.

(Information for this report comes from Florida Realtors® with data provided by Florida’s multiple listing services compiled monthly from MLS feeds.)       

Florida Keys Real Estate Market – April 2022

By Market Reports

Real Estate Market Report; Florida Keys 2022

General Market Conditions

How the real estate market in the Florida Keys is viewed of course depends on who is viewing it.  If you own property here, and want to sell it, you should be feeling pretty good about your prospects of getting a great price in a relative short amount of time, especially if you have an upscale property worth over a million dollars.  If you have a property on the market and are not receiving offers near or above your asking price, you and your realtor may want to reconsider the asking price, perhaps having set your sights too high, even in this market.

If you are looking to buy a property in the Florida Keys, expect to pay historically high prices for it, and when you do find one that works for you, don’t take a lot of time making up your mind.

If you are in the business of helping people buy and sell real estate, you are probably feeling pretty good about your career choice, for even though the number of sales appear to be settling to pre-COVID levels, increasing residential real estate closing prices are creating skyrocketing dollar sales volume.

How long will this Seller’s Market last?  According to Zillow, double digit home value growth with continue through 2022, peaking at 21.6% in May, before gradually slowing to 17.3% by January 2023.  Realtor.com believes that buyer competition will remain fierce with buyer demand outmatching inventory recovery and predict a 2.9% median sales price appreciation in 2022.  However, both caution that affordability due to increasing mortgage rates, and inflation could dampen these lofty forecasts.  But all real estate markets are local by nature, and I don’t think these predictions of average national trends necessarily apply to the Florida Keys, although the principals certainly do.

If you are a chart person, you will find at the bottom of this page several PDF files displaying nearly three years of trends of the “number of sales”, “the median sales price,” “the number of days from listing to contract,” and “the number of properties for sale (inventory)”.  I have kept single family homes separate from condominiums and the monthly data points are 6-month rolling averages, used in order to smooth out seasonal fluctuations and spikes created by outlying sales that can skew things in a relatively small market like the Keys.  Mobil homes and vacant lots have been excluded from the data, but if you have an interest in this information, reach out to me on the contact page and I will gladly share that information with you.

The Florida Keys Real Estate Market – April 2022 Update

Number of Residential Sales Decrease and Stabilize

The number of residential single family and condo sales in the Florida Keys have decreased about 35% from early 2021 peaks (50% for condominiums) and appear to be stabilizing close to mid-2019 levels.  Cash buyers accounted for approximately 36% of single-family home purchases and 44% of condo purchases in 2021.

Sale Price Increases Continue to Climb

The median sale price of residential Florida Keys properties does not appear to be slowing down.  The median (six-month trailing rolling average) price for a single-family home in March 2022, was $994,971 a 28% increase from March 2021.  The median condominium price was $599,792 a 24% increase from March 2021.  If you owned a residential property in the Florida Keys at the beginning of the COVID pandemic in 2019, based on sold property data, you have probably realized a 50% to 75% increase in your property’s value.

Another strength of market indicator is the ratio of sold price to list price.  With single-family homes the average 2021 ratio was 97.2% compared to 94.3% in 2020, with condos 97.5% compared to 94.5%.  Many sellers are still receiving multiple offers, often with buyer concessions, often resulting in their home selling for above its listing price.

Inventories at 30% of 2019 Early COVID Levels

Single-family homes offered for sale in the Florida Keys Multiple Listing Services (MLS) at the end of March 2022 totaled 374 (rolling 6-month average), 30% of the 1,255 listed at the end of June 2019.  As for condominiums, only 93 were for sale, just 23% of the 411 listed at the end of June 2019.

The shortage of inventory, upon closer examination, is not due to a lack of Sellers.  The number of new listings for both single family homes and condos in the Florida Keys has only varied slightly over the last 6 years.  However, the median time to contract, or the amount of time between a listing being on the market as “active” and the time a seller accepts an offer, is a third of what it was in early 2019.  The supply has been constant, while the demand has significantly increased, the average single-family home going to contract in just 35 days in 2021, compared to 100 days just two years earlier, the average condo in just 38 days, compared to 110.

(Information for this report comes from Florida Realtors® with data provided by Florida’s multiple listing services compiled monthly from MLS feeds.)       

Florida Keys Real Estate Market – September 2021

By Market Reports

Real Estate Market Report; Florida Keys 2021

General Market Conditions

There is no doubt that realtors are having a pretty good year: the number of sales is appreciably higher, the days between listing and selling are significantly shorter, and the selling prices are markedly greater, than just a year ago.  Failing to anticipate the side effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the real estate market, many were caught by surprise.  As soon as lock downs started to lift, the Florida Keys saw a large increase in  cash flush homebuyers seeking single family homes and condos where they could social distance and enjoy the outdoors, where the weather was warm and masking requirements were less, where taxes were low and sunsets magnificent, and where margaritas never tasted better.  We began to see properties sell in a matter of days, sellers receiving multiple offers, properties selling for higher than asking price, and buyers waiving contingencies, often with quick closing cash offers.

For the moment it is a strong Seller’s market; but how long will it last?  Zillow, in a recent article expects 2021 to be “a year unlike any other” even factoring in that there may be a return to cities as economies reopen.  Thinktanks, such as “Housing Center,” believe increasing home prices will be balanced by low mortgage rates and high personal financial liquidity, keeping demand for new and existing homes high, at least through 2021.  The only thing keeping somewhat of a lid on it all seems to be the lack of homes for sale.  The inventory of listed homes in the Florida Keys is half what it was just two years ago.

If you are a chart person, you will find at the bottom of this page several PDF files displaying two years of trends of the number of sales, the median sales price, the number of days from listing to contract, and the number of properties for sale (inventory).  I have kept single family homes separate from condominiums and the monthly data points are 6-month rolling averages, used in order to smooth out seasonal fluctuations and spikes created by outlying sales that can skew things in a relatively small market like the Keys.  Mobil homes and vacant lots have been excluded from the data, but if you have an interest in this information, reach out to me on the contact page and I will gladly share that information with you.

The Florida Keys Real Estate Market – September 2021 Update

Home Buyers Discover Inventories are Low in the Keys

We are experiencing upward pricing pressures on properties due to an increase in the number of buyers and a decrease in the number homes for sale.  Single-family homes offered for sale in the Florida Keys Multiple Listing Services (MLS) as of July 31 totaled 404 compared to 1,169 two years ago, skipping the COVID year of 2020, a 65.4% decrease.  As for condominiums, only 91 were listed compared to 410 on July 31, 2019, a 78.8% decrease.

Florida Keys Properties Selling in Half the Time

Part of the reason home inventories are down in the Florida Keys, is that those that are being listed are not remaining on market for long.  There existed as of July 31 a 2.0-months inventory of single-family homes, compared to the nationally accepted benchmark for a balanced market, a market favoring neither buyer nor seller, of 5.5 months.  There was 1.3-month inventory of condominiums available.  Of the single-family homes sold this year through July, the average time between the listing date and contract date was only 38 days compared to 92 days for the same period in 2019.  Condominiums have gone to contract in an average of 5o days compared to 107 days two years ago.

Home Price Increases Not Seen in the Florida Keys Since 2005

Driven by multiple offers, often from cash buyers, it is not unusual to see owners agreeing to sell their homes at prices higher than they were asking.  Year-to-date through July, single-family homes closed at a median sales price of $840,000 compared to $605,000 in 2019, a two-year increase of 38.8%.  Cash only was used to purchase 37.1% of these single-family homes.  Condominium increases were more modest, closing at a median sales price of $480,000 this year, an increase of 7.0%.  However, condo price increases in the up-scale condo and townhome communities such as Mariner’s Club Key Largo, are seeing increases like the single-family homes, especially for the water view units.  Cash was used to purchase 45.1% of the condos sold thus far in 2021.

Another strength of market indicator is the ratio of sold price to list price.  With single-family homes the average ratio in July 2021 was 97.8% compared to 91.8% in 2019, while with condos the average sales to list price was 98.7% compared to 92.1%.

(Information for this report comes from Florida Realtors® with data provided by Florida’s multiple listing services compiled monthly from MLS feeds.)